In lieu of any original thoughts here, I am quoting Hussman en bloc:
Look. The models that central bankers use are not somehow classified or hidden from the economics profession, nor has the discipline been deprived of the ability to examine the often weak empirical evidence behind them (see for example Failed Transmission: On the Futility of Activist Fed Policy and How To Wind Down a $4 Trillion Balance Sheet). Central banks possess no concealed, mysterious knowledge that is somehow obscure to mortals. If anything, one might question whether some FOMC governors have ever carefully examined historical data at all, given that many of their propositions can be refuted by even the most basic scatterplot. Among the most persistent misconceptions are 1) that unemployment is closely related to inflation in general prices, when the true relationship is with real wage inflation; 2) that activist policy deviations, away from levels that can be systematically determined using available non-monetary data, have any economically meaningful correlation at all with subsequent economic improvements; 3) that “wealth” is embodied in the paper price of a security rather than the stream of future cash flows that are actually generated and delivered to investors over time as the result of productive activities, and; 4) that episodes of yield-seeking speculation, and the systemic collapses that follow, can be dismissed as the result of outside forces, for which the Fed bears no responsibility.